Champions League 2012-13: Before the first leg of the semifinals, Part I

The second semifinal of the season’s Champions League is going to take place in another German city - Dortmund, where another German-Spanish duo will start the fight for a place in the final. Borussia and Real met in the group stage and were victorious over the Dutch and English champions. However, all talks about the group stage need to be stopped here, as these are new matches, this is the semifinal.

The road to this stage was certainly not easy for both of the teams. Only the miracle of scoring twice in the injury time opened the semifinal doors for the Dortmund side. After a goalless draw in Malaga, Juergen Klopp had to wary of conceded goals.

Borussia didn’t have its best match that evening and it was not obviously stronger than Malaga, at least in that particular match. The team didn’t create as many chances as they did in Spain, but let the visitors organize several dangerous attacks. Despite the beautiful goal scored in the first half, Borussia looked surprised of how well-prepared the opponent was. The players were getting nervous. Shmelzer and Subbotic could have been expulsed for continuous fouls, but the referee was mild. It is important to mention, that Klopp played without Hummels, Kehl and Grosskreutz in the starting line-up, introducing Santana, Bender and Blaszykowski instead. These three decisions needed to be revised during the match, so the two midfielders were substituted after 70 minutes of average football, while Hummels came in on the 86^th minute to encourage the teammates. And it was exactly the three substitutions that made the miracle happen. 15 minutes before the end Reus and Goetze were denied by Malaga’s goalkeeper Willy, who made two unbelievable saves by his left foot. Malaga seemed to have the things under control after the second goal, but this was not meant to be Borussia’s last match in this Champions League. Despite the the fact that the winning goal was scored after Borussia players were twice caught offside, the way they fought in the last minutes of the match and the way their fans encouraged the team gives Borussa a full credit to appear in this late stage.

Real had almost secured the semifinal place in their first match against Galatasaray, so they simply needed to keep their face and not get smashed by Galatasaray. The team coped with this, not without efforts, though. The strength of Real is the play they showed in the quarterfinals: the play without emotions. This is the main philosophy Mourinho managed to inject into Real players this season. They were solid but calm in both matches against Galatasaray. The opponent was fighting, creating chances, scoring goals, but Real never panicked. The coach would come up with a fantastic substitution and save the match in any case. As Mourinho introduced Modric in the match against Manchester United, he brought Albiol instead of Oezil in the quarterfinal second leg, to prevent the emotional Turks of scoring the fourth goal. It worked, and the opponent had no more chances in the last 15 minutes, where the miracle could have been produced.   

Other than the match against Malaga, Borussia had been brilliant in the rest of its matches in this Champions League edition. The problem in the last round was probably  the fact that Borussia was announced to be the favorite. And this is not the best present to them. They will rather be underdogs and surprise. Now they are underdogs again. Borussia is surely going to create lots of chances in these semifinal ties, but the key question is whether they will convert these chances into goals or not. The team is quick, they have clever players and their attackers are in good form. If they are going to win against Real, it has to be done thanks to their creativity. On the other side, Borussia cannot boast to have world-class players, as Real can. The team is not experienced in Champions League, and, finally, the team suddenly bumped into the problem of Goetze’s announced transfer to Bayern: the news that was obviously a topic within the team, as Klopp’s press-conference showed. Will this factor affect Borussia’s performance or not, the time will show.

What we expect to see in Dortmund is, of course, quick counterattacking play by Borussia, but it is not a fact that Mourinho is going to let the Germans do this. Real is probably going to try to give the ball away and sit deep, waiting for their own chances to organize counterattacks. The two are probably Europe’s quickest counterattackers. But Real is also good in positional play. Let’s see how Borussia will try to break Real’s defense and keep its own goal under a lock. The fact that Real’s Essien, Coentrao and Arbeloa will miss the match might become the key for Borussia’s wingers to act. However, the Spanish champions have at least 20% more chances to advance to the final than their German colleagues. The experience of third consecutive semifinal, the balanced team and the cunning manager might be the difference in the end of the day.