Champions League 2012-13: The first 1/8 final matches, Part I

So we are not far away from the Champions League spring-part to begin. There are 8 encounters, winners of each will lead to the quarterfinals. The first four matches take place this week, then four more next week. After a week of a break, the second matches will take place. We will know the names of all 8 quarterfinalists late in the evening of March 13^th.

Before the first matches start, it is interesting to take a look at some facts describing the first part of the Champions League 2012-13. The main fact is

the absence of the current title holders Chelsea, who were eliminated by Juventus and Shakhtar. The dominance of Spanish clubs is obvious. All four of them are continuing their journey in this Champions League. Germany and Italy retrieved all of their teams, while England is left with Manchester United and Arsenal. The last five teams of the stage represent France, Portugal, Ukraine, Scotland and Turkey.

	League	Pts.
1 (-)	Spain (4)	49
2 (-)	Germany (3)	39
3 (-)	England (2)	35
4 (-)	Portugal (1)	24
5 (-)	Italy (2)	20
6 (-)	France (1)	20
7 (-)	Ukraine (1)	15
8 (-)	Romania (0)	10
9 (-)	Scotland (1)	10
10 (-)	Turkey (1)	10
11 (-)	Russia (0)	10
12 (-)	Greece (0)	9
13 (-)	Belarus (0)	6
14 (+1)	Belgium (0)	5
15 (-1)	Netherlands (0)	4
16 (+1)	Croatia (0)	1
17 (-1)	Denmark (0)	1

There have been some changes in the squads, as the teams were allowed to change three names to their Champions League bid during the break. Some of the biggest names are Galatasaray’s Drogba and Sneijder. We will again have a chance to see Nicolas Anelka in this tournament after his move to Juventus, while Mario Balotelli is not allowed to participate in the tournament for his new club, as he has already been a part of the group stage with another team. The breaking news, however, is certainly David Beckham’s addition to PSG’s squad. There have also been other changes within the clubs during the past two months, which might affect the morale of the teams as they approach this play-off stage. One thing is clear: all of the managers had this Champions League stage on their minds during the winter period, so that is why most of the 16 teams are in a better form than they were at any point previously in the season.

RANKING BEFORE THE FIRST ROUND OF 16 MATCHES

Place	Club
1 (-)	FC Barcelona (Spain)
2 (+2)	Bayern (Germany)
3 (-1)	Real Madrid (Spain)
4 (-1)	Man. Utd. (England)
5 (+1)	Juventus (Italy)
6 (+1)	PSG (France)
7 (-2)	Borussia D. (Germany)
8 (+1)	Porto (Portugal)
9 (+1)	Arsenal (England)
10 (-2)	Shakhtar D. (Ukraine)
11 (-)	Malaga (Spain)
12 (+2)	Milan (Italy)
13 (-)	Valencia (Spain)
14 (+1)	Galatasaray (Turkey)
15 (-3)	Schalke 04 (Germany)
16 (-)	Celtic (Scotland)

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The top scorers of the Champions League 2012-13 are Galatasaray’s Burak Yilmaz and Real’s Cristiano Ronaldo, who both have scored 6 goals so far. Leo Messi, together with two already eliminated players, has scored 5.

Now the first two matches of the week are the Tuesday encounters in Glasgow, where Celtic will play against Juventus, and in Valencia, where the local team will host PSG.

Let’s start with Celtic. The team has used the winter break to escape from its local competitors in the league title race. The difference between Celtic and Inverness is 18 points. Since their last match in Champions League the team has played 13 official matches and won 11 of them, scoring 33 goals. Gary Hooper has scored 10 goals in these matches.   

Celtic’s opponent is the Italian champion Juventus. The team has been criticized for its lack of quality forwards. The problem got worse as major players started to get injuries. The form of the team suffered, the team got eliminated from the national cup competition, but everything seems to go the right way again. Peluso and Marrone don’t spoil the picture any more, while the team is waiting for Chiellini to recover; De Ceglie has been good in substituting Asamoah; Pogba is getting closer to the status of a superstar, while Matri starts to score. On their way back to the European elite Antonio Conte has managed to teach the team to get more rational and pragmatic. Juve is losing many more matches this year than last year, but the endless boring draws of the previous season are far behind. The bench is longer now, the team is progressing and the strikers beginning to score more and more. The last match against Fiorentina has been a fantastic performance of a truly strong, balanced machine. Anelka, who still has to play for his new club, can be the big threat in front of opponent’s goal, if Conte’s four forwards fail to impress. 

Celtic will be looking to repeat the two famous home wins against Juventus back in 1981 and 2001. Especially the last one was memorable, when even Del Piero’s one and Trezeguet’s two goals were not enough for the Italian visitors to save a point.  The match ended 4-3. In today’s match Juventus is the obvious favorite to win the ticket to the next round. Celtic won a home match against Barcelona, but Juventus has got a more solid defense than the Catalonians, the stakes are much higher now, and finally, the defensive tactics of Celtic is too familiar to the Old Lady: every second team in Italy plays that way against the Italian champions. The main weapons of Juventus are Buffon, the amazing midfield trio, and the bench. If there is a 15% chance for the Scottish champions to advance, it lies through set pieces: a quick counter attack broken by Bonucci’s cynical faul, a header from a cross, and back to defense. The good form, the spirit, and the home fans are the main hope for Neil Lennon. If they lose the first match in Glasgow, there is no point to travel to Turin any more.  

   

The second match of the day is Valencia-PSG. Interesting enough, the opponents have never met in European competitions before.

The changes to the French squad are minimal. Paris Saint Germain has sold the defender Lugano to Malaga, while the big addition David Beckham is more of a marketing tool. The Englishman will not join the team in Valencia. He may get his debut for the French team later in the week. PSG has been in an exceptional form during the Champions League break. Zlatan and teammates have won 10 and drawn one in their last 11 official matches since they beat Porto in Champions League group stage. There were also straight competitors in this list of beaten teams. 8 of the 27 goals scored in this period had a Zlatan Ibrahimovic trademark. It took about 1,5 year for Carlo Ancelotti to emerge the team from a superior on paper into superior in fact. Only now after the winter break one can say that there is no team in France equal to PSG.     

Valencia is the only one from the Tuesday competitors not leading the domestic table. However, as the other three, the team is progressing. The new coach has been a good addition to the team, as the club is now on the 5^th place in the league. Losing Fernando Gago to Velez Sarsfield, and adding another former Real Madrid player Sergio Canales are the main changes that will affect Valencia’s further Champions League campaign. Soldado has been the heart of the team no matter who the coach is. He scores every third goal of his team. The traditional last minute goals speak about Valencia’s strong morale.

It is going to be hard for Valencia to contain the PSG star forwards, but the tie is one of the tightests in this round of 16. The team looks more solid now under Valverde’s management. PSG is, however, a huge power nowadays. It is not only the offensive alliance lead by Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ezequiel Lavezzi to be afraid of: PSG has conceded only three goals during this Champions League campaign – less than any other team. The goalkeeper Sebastian Sirigu has just set a new club record of 860 minutes without conceding.

It is going to be a beautiful encounter, with a little advantage of the French side. Valencia’s main men are going to be Adil Rami, who will take care of Ibrahimovic, as well as captain Roberto Soldado, who has to take the advantage of Thiago Silva’s absence. Anyway, Valencia is strong when visiting, so the overall result is not going to be decided here at Mestalla even if the home side fails to win. 

Read Part II
Read Part III
Read Part IV