FIFA World Cup 2014: The final between Germany and Argentina

Brazil – Netherlands 0-3: Brazil conceded its 10^th goal in the last two matches.

Defence: 0 – 1,5

Midfield: 0 – 1,5

Attack: 1 – 1,5

Interplay: 0 – 1,5

TOTAL: 1 – 6

11. Robben (NED) – 1,5

2. Vlaar (NED) – 1,5

20. Wijnaldum (NED) – 1

11. Oscar (BRA) – 1

A final is a single match, where the motivation and the playing circumstances can do extraordinary things to players. Therefore it is pointless to discuss who is better or who deserves more. Anything can happen in the final, and both teams have 50% chances to win it.

Here are five reasons why the winner could be Germany:

The best attacking team of this World Cup is Germany. Argentina has scored 8 goals in the whole tournament, while Germans scored 7 to Brazil, and another 10 to the other four opponents they met on the road to the final.

The team has played together for a very long period of time. Joachim Loew has had almost the same players in the starting line-up four years ago in South Africa and two years ago in Poland and Ukraine. Half of the team has been playing together even before, representing youth national teams of Germany.

The German players have got more top-clash experience, most of them being Champions League winners. Argentina has got Messi, Di Maria, Mascherano and Higuain. The rest of the team has not even been closer to winning the biggest trophy of the club football.

Psychological advantage is on the German side. Destroying Brazil by a humiliating 7-1 score gives a huge boost to self-confidence. Don’t forget the quarrterfinals of the South African World Cup, where Germany defeated Argentina 4-0.

Bookmakers think it will be Germany.

And here are five reasons why the winner could be Argentina:

Argentina has got the best defence in the tournament. Although the team has conceded three goals, all of them have been scored in the group stage. Since the Play-off has started the team has played 330 minutes, scoring twice and not conceding at all. Adopting the 4-3-3 formation during the group stage, Alejandro Sabella has surely made the right decision. He introduces four defenders that have a main task of containing the opponent’s attacks. Garay has been more than reliable. His partners in the centre, either Fernandez or Zabaleta, have been solid, too. Sabella moved Zabaleta away from the centre, where the mistakes of the Manchester City defender don’t affect the game so badly. The left back is Rojo, who has also been useful when joining the attackers. His crosses are full of quality. Whenever anything goes wrong, there is the great anchorman Mascherano to save the situation, as he did on the 91^st minute of the semi-final against Netherlands. 

Loew’s Germany has always been very close to win trophies, but lost to Spain in 2008 and 2010, then to Italy in 2012. In all three cases there was an opponent with a solid defence, which hadn’t conceded a single goal during the Play-off. In all of the three matches Germany faced the same scenario: the team was prevented of organizing quick counterattacks, the opponent’s main task was to neutralize German attackers, and somehow score a goal after a counterattack (Fernando Torres 2008), set piece (Puyol 2010) or a genius touch (Balotelli 2012). A very similar scenario is likely to happen on Sunday, taking into account that Loew has got back to the same 4-5-1 in the last two matches.

Argentina is captained by Lionel Messi. The Barcelona-man is one of the few players in the world capable of changing the outcome of any match.

A World Cup in Americas has always been won by a South American team – 1930, 1950, 1962, 1970, 1978, 1986, 1994.

There have been two Italian referees in the history of World Cup finals: 1978 (Argentina’s victory) and 2002 (Germany’s defeat).