Champions League 2012-13: Before the second leg of the semifinals, Part I

The first semifinals got famous for the German dominance. Bayern and Borussia, German champions and vice-champions of the past years, scored 8 goals to their Spanish counterparts. Robert Lewandowski became the hero of the semifinals, scoring 4 goals. The Polish striker has now scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League, which is 2 more than Lionel Messi’s indicator and 2 less than Cristiano Ronaldo’s.

Germany is suddenly close to climb onto the first place. The difference between the two leagues is now three points. In case both of the German teams appear in the final, equal number of points earned by both league representatives will push the Bundesliga forward.

	League	Pts.
1 (-)	Spain (2)	66
2 (-)	Germany (2)	63
3 (-)	England (0)	39
4 (-)	Italy (0)	29
5 (-)	Portugal (0)	27
6 (-)	France (0)	26
7 (+1)	Turkey (0)	17
8 (-1)	Ukraine (0)	16
9 (-)	Romania (0)	10
10 (-)	Scotland (0)	10
11 (-)	Russia (0)	10
12 (-)	Greece (0)	9
13 (-)	Belarus (0)	6
14 (-)	Belgium (0)	5
15 (-)	Netherlands (0)	4
16 (-)	Croatia (0)	1
17 (-)	Denmark (0)	1

RANKING AFTER THE FIRST LEG OF SEMIFINALS

Place	Club	Chance to Win The Cup
1 (+1)	Bayern (Germany)	54,2% (+27,9%)
2 (+2)	Borussia D. (Germany)	40,6% (+20,3%)
3 (-2)	Real Madrid (Spain)	3,6% (-25%)
4 (-2)	FC Barcelona (Spain)	1,6% (-23,2%)

The shocking semifinal results left almost no chances for Real or Barcelona to win the trophy. Bayern showed the best performance shown in this tournament so far, while Borussia is still the only unbeaten side of Champions League 2012-13.

Borussia and Real will open the second leg of the Champions League 2012-13 semifinals. The first match gave answers to many questions. The score 4-1, with goals scored by the team topscoreres Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo, fully tells the story of the match.

Juergen Klopp decided to introduce Blaszczykowski and Gundogan in the starting lineup. Hummels started, too. Marco Reus occupied the left wing and the Bayern signing Mario Goetze had to assist the forward Lewandowski. As for Real, the main surprise was Angel Di Maria’s absence, whose place in the right wing was occupied by Mesut Oezil, while Luka Modric was meant to cover Oezil’s usual place in the midfield. The team had problems in the right wing of the defense, so Sergio Ramos moved there, to open a place for Pepe to start in the centre. These two changes were meant to play a negative role throughout the match.     

It got clear, why Pepe didn’t start for Real in the last period of time. The Portuguese international, together with Raphael Varane, started a very nervous match and never got a chance to recover. Pepe lost the main battles to Lewandowski.

Borussia Dortmund got inspired by Bayern’s noisy victory over another Spanish giant the previous evening. The high spirit developed further after Marco Reus’s early slaloms showed how vulnerable Real defenders could be. Everyone wanted to try such dribblings and some even succeeded. Goetze had an inspirational match, outplaying Real’s defensive midfielders. However, this match was Lewandowski’s benefice. The Polish striker had an unbelievable night. He did all he wanted, and scored the way he wanted, increasing the number of his Champions League goals from 6 to 10.

Tactically Borussia played the same way as Bayern – leaving the ball to the opponent, but never letting them make an extra step after crossing the midpoint. This prevented Real players of creating any danger in front. Another parallel with Bayern’s amazing match against Barcelona was that the physique was fantastic throughout 90 minutes. An interesting part of Borussia’s game was their mature patience. This is especially interesting to notice after the quarterfinal tie against Malaga, where the German side was blamed to be inexperienced.

Real was unorganized. Lack of emotions has been described as a cruel characteristic of Real, but the team looked pale in this case and the emotional breakthrough never happened to come. Only at some point, when the score was 1-0, Real seemed to be recovering, but the 3 suffered free kicks didn’t lead into big chances. Mourinho’s defenders lost the second floor to the opponent, the attackers were inert, and the team needed two hard-working wingers to help the backs: Ronaldo and Oezil didn’t do this at all.

The return encounter requires Real to score at least three without conceding. Jose Mourinho’s team has scored 3 or more in 23 matches this season, but conceding has also been a constant problem for the team. The Spanish champions will have to utilize the energy produced by Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. They will have to be quicker, wittier and work harder than Borussia. The main problem is neutralizing the danger of the opponent’s front 4, where especially the wings are dangerous. Borussia will play its football without looking back. The team is still the most inexperienced among the remaining semifinalists, so the very moment they decide to hold the advantage of three goals, they might appear in danger. However, Klopp knows about this, so the chances of Borussia to earn a place in the Wembley-final are about 90%.