Arthur's Football Comments: Champions League 2012-13: Before the first leg of the quarterfinals, Part I

April 2, 2013

Champions League 2012-13: Before the first leg of the quarterfinals, Part I


The eight matches of the Champions League Round of 16 second leg were full of beautiful football and
Champions League 2012-13 quarterfinals
drama. Big clubs like Milan, Manchester United and Porto, who together have won the Champions League 12 times, former vice-champions Celtic, Valencia, Arsenal and former UEFA Cup winners Shakhtar and Schalke 04 all will not be a part of Champions League 2012-13 any longer. But stronger teams are left in the tournament. Out of the 8 teams only Juventus and Borussia are
unbeaten up to now. 

There were scored as many as 23 goals in these 8 matches. At least 4 players scored magnificent goals. It is difficult to choose one from this quartet of Modric, Altintop, Messi and Isco, but I will vote for the Galatasaray player, as it was not only a beautiful strike, but probably also the most important strike in Altintop’s career. He celebrated his goal to his former club with a great joy, pointing out the current club logo on his chest.

   

Topscorers Burak Yilmaz of Galatasaray and Crisitano Ronaldo of Real Madrid scored again. They have 8 goals each next to their names. The two topscorers will meet each other in the quarterfinals and only one of them will enter the round of last 4. Barcelona’s Lionel Messi is getting closer and closer. After the brace in the last match, the Argentine has now scored 7 goals in 8 Champions League matches this season.


Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, the joint topscorer of Champions League

Spanish teams are still superior despite losing one of their fellow clubs. There are only 5 leagues represented in the Champions League quarterfinals. The most successful teams will have to play maximum 5 matches from now on, and the worst ones will be satisfied with 2, so the following table showing the placement of the leagues is not expected to change much by the end of the tournament. If the Spanish teams don’t lose all of their matches, they will surely be the winners again. Germans have to be satisfied with the second place, as England and Italy are too far to catch them. For a few years ago the German teams were not even considered when the top three places were allocated between Italian, English and Spanish clubs. The hopes for Italian football to rise again are still far from becoming reality. The league has only got one top class club, so the 4th place is still all the Serie A teams can reach, despite the big opportunities open after the English disaster. PSG can help France enter the top 5 instead of Portugal, but they will need to win against Barcelona to do so.   


League
Pts.
1 (-)
Spain (3)
60
2 (-)
Germany (2)
47
3 (-)
England (0)
39
4 (+1)
Italy (1)
29
5 (-1)
Portugal (0)
27
6 (-)
France (1)
24
7 (-)
Ukraine (0)
16
8 (-)
Turkey (1)
14
9 (-)
Romania (0)
10
10 (-)
Scotland (0)
10
11 (-)
Russia (0)
10
12 (-)
Greece (0)
9
13 (-)
Belarus (0)
6
14 (+1)
Belgium (0)
5
15 (-1)
Netherlands (0)
4
16 (+1)
Croatia (0)
1
17 (-1)
Denmark (0)
1

Barca is back in track, which once again changes the odds in the Champions League. The three absolute top favorites to win the trophy are Real, Barcelona and Bayern. Only one of these teams has received an equal opponent in the quarterfinals, therefore the German team goes down in the ranking. Juventus is only on the 5th position just because of the tough road to the final. Malaga, not expected to enter this stage after a loss in Porto, has climbed up to the 7th position, which is the biggest jump in the table.  

RANKING BEFORE THE FIRST LEG OF QUARTERFINALS
Place
Club
1 (+2)
Real Madrid (Spain)
2(+2)
FC Barcelona (Spain)
3 (-2)
Bayern (Germany)
4 (+3)
Borussia D. (Germany)
5 (-)
Juventus (Italy)
6 (-)
PSG (France)
7 (+6)
Malaga (Spain)
8(+3)
Galatasaray (Turkey)

Quarterfinals

The encounter between Bayern and Juventus is definitely the central duel of the Champions League 2012-13 quarterfinals. Both of the teams are in the middle of amazing seasons, having almost secured the league title already by the Easter holidays. Not only the overall season has been good, but also the current form is impressive. The Italian club won against archrivals Inter at Giuseppe Meazza last weekend, while Bayern scored all 9 goals to humiliate Hamburger. The teams have no serious absences, so there is no excuse for the losers of this thrilling tie.
Bayern very often plays the way they played against Arsenal at home, the Bundesliga fans will agree. They sometimes don’t show some astonishing performance, as if proving they can even win saving some energy. And they usually do. In their previous Champions League match Bayern was too relaxed. Even a 3rd minute wake-up call didn’t help them arouse. Even when the score became 0-2 the team was still playing their confident football. This is the strength of Jupp Heynckes’s team. No team and no circumstances can ever break them. Schweinsteiger, Javi Martinez, Kroos, Mueller, Robben, Ribery, Mario Gomez, Mandzukic, Pizarro, Shaqiri: all of these superstars are members of the Bayern attack. No statistics is needed to add to these names to demonstrate the huge attacking potential of the Champions League vice-champions. They are also backed by captain Lahm and goalkeeper Neuer. Are there any experts doubting this team to score 9 goals in their next matches?

Scoring nine goals is an extraordinary occasion, but Bayern’s next opponent is not very famous for conceding a lot. In fact, no one has scored to the Old Lady in this Champions League since the team conceded a direct shot from a free kick back in November. The goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon has held 5 clean sheets since then. The domestic record is impressive, too: last time Antonio Conte’s team conceded twice in a match was three months ago. So the defense is the strongest side of Juventus. The midfield is not weaker either. With the genius Andrea Pirlo in the center and Vidal-Marchisio couple next to him everything is possible for the opponent to expect. The attack has been the most discussed topic around the Italian champions, but Antonio Conte’s side is still one of the most scoring teams both in Italy and in Champions League.

How the match will develop is not too difficult to guess. It is going to be a reasonable football, where teams are not going to risk a lot. Bayern is going to take the advantage of the wings, if Juve backs ever dare to leave their positions, and long distance shots, which has probably been Juventus’s weakest point this season. What the visitors may suggest is the quick counterattacks with Pirlo’s killing crosses, which might catch Bayern’s occasionally slow defense, or set pieces. Antonio Conte saw Bayern score 9 times in the last match, but he also saw Bayern concede two from corners the same evening. But the main battle is going to take place in the midfield, where maestros like Schweinsteiger and Pirlo will be the central figures of the match. What Juventus can hope for is that the team can fit better to the opponent. The proof of this is Euro 2012 semifinal encounter, where the German and Italian national sides played similar football as the two big clubs, having plenty of Bayern and Juventus players within their squads. Another fact that Barzagli and Vidal spent several successful years in Bundesliga doesn’t harm either. However, Bayern will have a tiny advantage in this tie thanks to their Champions League experience. This is the 4th time in the past 5 years for Bayern to play in a Champions League quarterfinal, while Juventus has returned to this stage after a 10-year break.    

Andrea Pirlo against Bastian Schweinsteiger
The teams have got some common characteristics, too. Both Bayern and Juventus are famous for their long benches. Another thing concerns their performances in the previous round: they were so well-prepared for their first leg match in the previous stage of the Champions League, that thanks to the winning margin they could afford showing a mediocre play in the return leg. This means that the upcoming match at Alianz Arena is going to be a spectacular show. Don’t ever miss it.  
       
The other match is taking place in Paris, where PSG will host Barcelona. Both of the teams have great news for their fans before the Champions League quarterfinal. Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s suspension was reduced, so that the Swede can play against his former club. Barcelona can look forward to the coach Tito Vilanova’s return after a two-month absence. 

These facts are definitely going to impact the match concerned. As the other two teams playing their quarterfinal match on Tuesday, PSG and Barcelona are almost champions of their domestic leagues. The current form of PSG is undisputable. The team has been winning almost everything at home. This is the main reason why Carlo Ancelotti’s team has got no competitors for the French gold this season. Barcelona’s top form can be proven by Messi’s unrealistic record of scoring in 19 league matches in a row.

What we learnt from the previous stage is that the teams are strong enough to go all the way to the London-final. PSG has been the only team in this tournament to eliminate a Spanish team. Although the team didn’t show anything extraordinary in matches against Valencia, it was clear that the French team was not one of those that concede goals occasionally.

They were calm in defensive actions and witty in counterattacks. Claiming to become a superclub, PSG promised to show the home public how they aimed to take the Champions League trophy. However, the coach was the one losing to Deportivo and Liverpool after obtaining three-goal advantages in Champions League editions of 2003-04 and 2004-05 respectively, so the goal advantage had to be preserved no matter the price. And the price for the PSG playing without Zlatan, was the boring defensive strategy. The opponent may have dictated the play; PSG had the match tempo under control. And again, calm defensive play, hard-work by Alex and Chantome, plus attackers Pastore and Lavezzi who were fighting for the ball way behind the zone they were used to. The result: no serious attacks conceded, despite the countless corners and a goal conceded from a long distance. PSG was quick to score the equalizer, which was more of a psychological answer for the home side. The nervousness was present up until that moment. Despite the fact that Beckham never appeared on the pitch, the team managed to earn the quarterfinal tickets. They need to show the same calmness in defense to advance to the last 4.

Barcelona was mesmerizing when tearing Milan into pieces in the second leg match of the Champions
PSG's Zlatan Ibrahimovic kissing Barcelona's logo
League Round of 16. Many were expecting the team to be blocked again, but the managerial staff came up with a great idea of surprising the opponent with a nominal striker. David Villa was unexpectedly active in front, so Milan’s attention was turned to him for Messi to get the ball more often and having better time to create something tangible. Iniesta and Xavi were there to assist the attackers, as usually.

The main profiles not eligible to play in the match are Thiago Motta of PSG and Carles Puyol of Barelona. Both are injured. PSG has got about 25-30% chances to defeat Barcelona. The main weapon has to be Sirigu’s and Ibrahimovic’s extraordinary actions. Lavezzi and Pastore have the quality to beat Barcelona’s defenders in quick counterattacks, while nobody has disallowed David Beckham’s unofficial title of a set piece master. Although Barcelona is believed to be weaker than it has been the past 5 years, there is no team able to distract opponents’ defenders as well as the Catalan team. This was the case against Milan and PSG is not more experienced than Carlo Ancelotti’s former club. With such quick players as Lionel Messi, David Villa and Andres Iniesta there are not many chances for Alex and Thiago Silva to win all the low balls in the PSG penalty box.

But it is going to be 11 against 11 when the referee blows his whistle at 20:45. Let Zlatan prove he is stronger than Lionel Messi. 

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